In early May 2025, the Lithuanian political party known as “The Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats” released a bold plan to secure Lithuania’s borders from potential aggression from Russia and/or Belarus. The political group – known as TS-LKD in Lithuanian-short-form, proposed setting up a defence line named after Vytautas the Great – ruler of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania around the 14th century.
While this is not at all a sure thing, and is presented by a group that is not even the ruling political party at the moment – the details are rather thought provoking and so we wanted to take a closer look at it.
The promotional video put out by the party explains that there are 670km of border with non-allied countries: Russia and Belarus. The remainder of Lithuania’s borders are with allies Poland and Latvia.
With the capital of Lithuania being just 28km from the border, it is also highlighted that it would take about an hour for armored forces to get to the city even if facing resistance.
And so, we have the Vytautas the Great defence line as proposed by the TS-LKD. In a post to social media, the centre-right political party stated:
“In order to ensure greater readiness of the state for possible threats at the border, we propose to set up a line of defense named after Vytautas the Great, consisting of 4 parts in Lithuania.”
The post then goes on to explain each section of this 4-part defence-line. But the video provides additional information as well.
The first section would be a border-controlled area, with a patrol road along the fence. The fence will have cameras installed to monitor activity. On the other side of the patrol road would be “dragon’s teeth” anti-mobility structures as well as anti-tank and infantry mines. There will also be concertina razor wire and anti-tank ditches. It looks like the back-end of this first section will have viewpoints built into the terrain, as well as pathways for underground shelter, and positions from which mortars can be fired.
The second section consists of more razorwire and landmines, but appears to also have a tunnel system below to connect to the back of the first section. A drone-launching area makes up the back of the 2nd section. Additional mortar positions will be designated alongside the drone-launch areas.
Then there’s the third section – where the enemy would encounter armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, such as Lithuania’s Boxer-based Vilkas. Tracked IFVs from allies will also be positioned here. Alongside mechanized forces will be electronic warfare units.
And finally, the fourth section would focus on air defense systems for NASAMS and self-propelled long-range artillery – such as Lithuania’s PzH2000s and future Caesar Mark IIs.
Translated from Lithuanian, the social media post states:
By the time the lines (sections) did their job, the enemy would be met by NATO mission fighter jets who would begin to “extinguish” the aggressor’s forces from above in half an hour.
It’s stated that the line of defense could cost around 1 billion euros and its installation and construction would take up to two years. In terms of land required, the fortification would require a strip 1km in width for roughly the entirety of Lithuania’s borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Interestingly, the TS-LKD states that the implementation of this fortification plan would not require increased defense financing, but would be linked to existing plans to allocate 5-6% of GDP for defense. It would also draw funds from the European Defense Fund since the project is for an EU border.
The group says that this project could become an exceptional element of strengthening national defense and a strong deterrent and would be implemented by local business and the military, keeping investments and funds within the Lithuanian economy.
It was also mentioned during a press conference that many concrete components are pre-fabricated, off-the-shelf civilian products. Chairman of the TS-LKD and former minister of defence, Laurynas Kasčiūnas was quoted as saying:
“Our military engineering is being revived, our military engineering has a new breath. Today we offer another idea, another direction on how we could fortify the border so that it makes it infinitely difficult for the enemy to enter our territory and allow him to meet enormous obstacles to slow his progress.”
It was also mentioned that such a defence line would double as a barrier against smuggling operations. During this media event it was also added that development of this concept is ongoing and that new features may be added.
In fact, it was noted that a lot of the lessons learned that are being integrated into this project, actually came from the ongoing war in Ukraine. Those consulting on the plan include several ex-military members under the leadership of ex-defense ministers. More specifically, consultants include a retired land forces general, a KASP officer involved in border guard services, and a Lithuanian volunteer who fought in Ukraine for 2 years as a sapper. These individuals have highlighted that Lithuania’s existing counter-mobility work at its borders is a good start.
Another topic that came up during the press conference was the major obstacle of certain laws in Lithuania – laws that do not regard border regions as government property. Because of this, land would have to be acquired from respective landowners. However, it’s rather unstandable that private individuals will have a hard time allowing their land to be turned into minefields
At least according to the TS-LKD, the bottom line is that a lot of Lithuania’s current borders aren’t properly defended, with many sections being only fenced.
So that’s the plan coming from the TS-LKD. This political party led the country in the form of a coalition government between 2020 and 2024, but lost this power after the October 2024 elections. It has since been relegated to being the main opposition party.
Obviously, one major reason for sharing such a plan is to score political points with voters and hopefully gain more seats in future elections. We are indeed very well aware of this and know that politicians’ promises don’t always become reality.
At the same time, those consulting on the project have experience and credibility. And it’s rather interesting to see one group’s idea of how to allocate defence funds to better protect Lithuania.
So what’s our take on this? Well, it’s an interesting concept. Layered defense/denial of mobility has been proven effective and it’s clear that this takes the previously publicized “Baltic Defence Line” to a whole new level.
At the same time, static defenses these days can be taken out. We also disagree with the assumption that NATO jets can be used effortlessly to stop the invasion. That’s because, if the Russians were to invade, it’s S400 systems in Kaliningrad would target jets over Lithuania.
Additionally, while the TS-LKD says that building this line would only take two years – we think it could take even longer… perhaps even decades. That’s because some border regions have very little infrastructure and are even covered in swamps and/or forests.
And when it comes to costs, megaprojects like this are not only likely to get behind schedule, but also likely to come in way over budget. Hopefully not as over-budget as Rail Baltica has become, but… who knows!
Ultimately, to create this 4-layer defence line, which includes tunnels and bunkers, for hundreds of kilometres – well, it’s ambitious. Will it slow the enemy down? Definitely. Could a billion or more euros be spent more effectively on other military equipment? Maybe….
